March 31, 2026
Coping with the Iran War
March 31, 2026
When my clients first developed a retirement plan, some of them a decade ago, none of them were prepared for our current reality.
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There are many components of today’s economy that deserve attention, but none so much as the ongoing War with Iran and what it means.
In short, our international arm is going septic.
Let me explain.
For those unfamiliar with sepsis, it’s a near fatal condition that develops from an infection. It works quickly, inciting the body to attack its own organs. To lower the risk of sepsis, some patients choose to cut off toes, legs, or arms that are heavily infected. It’s terrifying, fast, and volatile.
In terms of the state and economics, our infection is a breach of trust. That lack of trust erodes everything it touches, an immense societal inflammation. It’s not a partisan issue: This anxiety crosses all political lines.
What this article is about, at its core, is understanding a reality in which photo-realistic images can be produced with the push of a button. It is about what the Iran War has shown us about the state of the union, how a prolonged conflict could affect the future of the US dollar, and what we can do to gain a sense of peace.
This isn’t an article in support of or against Iran; it is not an opinion piece on governments or political ideology. Here, I want to discuss the facts, as reported, of the war and how it’s going.
First, the war is not popular or sanctioned. Only Congress can declare war on another nation. There is a loophole in which the president can command the Navy and the Marines without permission from congress, found in Article II, Section 2 of the Constitution. This offers some leeway for the executive branch to conduct military campaigns without officially declaring war.
This matters, because it’s unlikely Congress would have approved a move to bomb Iran in the first place. No credible source has indicated a potential attack on the United States from Iran. Key authorities have stated that the USA was not in any danger, including the Pentagon and Trump-appointee and former director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent.
In other words: There’s no justifiable reason for this war, outside of the usual suspects: War profiteering, greed, and, in this case, heavy Israeli lobbying. We know about the latter because this is not the first time the Israeli government has asked the United States for a joint military campaign against the country—last June is just one example.
But now we are in combat, with no end date in sight. That’s a significant problem.
We don’t know if we’re equipped for a long-drawn out battle. New technologies honed on the frontlines in Ukraine further complicate the logistics. We have the most expensive and powerful military in the world, but war technology has accelerated faster than our capacity to mass produce it.
For instance, drone technology is cheap and efficient. Ukraine does not have a navy but was able to decimate Russia’s Black Sea Navy with strategic and innovative drone strikes. Over the years, Russia has learned to harness these tools as well. They passed this knowledge onto Iran and China.
Defensive technology is also in short supply. While Israeli officials deny the report, there are rumors that the war could deplete Israel’s interceptor stockpile. Interceptor missiles are not cheap. The 2026 estimate is $15 million per unit. Meanwhile, Iran’s Shahed-136 drone costs between $20,000 - $50,000.
The math isn’t in our favor. A prolonged conflict means shelling more tax dollars not only for interceptors but offensive weaponry. At the moment, a longer conflict appears a likely scenario. Israel is not willing to end the war, we are continuing to bomb Tehran, and Tehran does not believe we are genuine in peace talks. So far, Iran cannot directly attack the United States, but rather attack Israel, strong-arm our allies.
And there is another problem that ordinary people like you and I have already experienced: Skyrocketing oil prices.
As you likely know from the news coverage, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. One fourth of all oil products pass through this water channel. While it’s closed, oil prices skyrocket. You’ve already seen it at the pump: In many places, regular unleaded gas is already almost $1 more per gallon. That adds up quickly, especially as the conflict continues.
The cost of gas increases the cost of almost everything. Food costs more because farmers must pay more for fertilizer to grow crops and for fuel to harvest them. Then the harvests must be transported to your local grocery store, which further drives expenses. Similarly, heating systems and propane gas, polyester clothes, and plastic goods will likely begin to inch up costs.
But rising prices aren’t the only stressor. We feel them most immediately as consumers and they affect our financial plans. There is still another direct attack regarding the Strait and it’s a long-term strategy.
Iran has said it may allow some tankers through the Strait if they pay in Chinese yuan. This may seem inconsequential, but shifting from the US dollar to the yuan means something for US global dominance.
Currently, we have an arrangement with the Gulf states: All oil must be purchased in US dollars, also referred to as the Petrodollar. This means that any country that needs to buy oil from the Gulf must first buy US dollars.
The deal reinforces USA financial domination in the region and strengthens the value of the dollar. It’s why you can outsource production cheaply, why Americans can have more luxurious vacations abroad, and how our corporations can more easily afford to enter new markets. It’s not the only factor for our financial power, but it is an incredibly important organ.
Currently, only Russian oil can be bought with yuan or Russian rubles. If Iran also shifts to yuan, China gains financial dominance in the Strait.
The phenomenon I am discussing here is known as De-dollarization, and this conflict accelerates the process. As the dollar loses value, we could see the depreciation and underperformance of U.S. financial assets. This affects retirement funds and US Treasury funding. It sways foreign investment in the nation, and reduces our hard power abroad.
This loss may not immediately impact consumers. But in the analogy of a patient contracting sepsis, it is one of our most important organs.
When combined with the billion-dollar foreign conflicts, we drain our government of tax dollars much-needed at home.
What happens if Iran does shift the oil trade further from the United States dollar? When combined with other volatile decisions that reduce trust with allies, the answer is a bleak one.
Investor and philanthropist Ray Dalio warns it could lead to an economic collapse similar to Britain's 1956 Suez Crisis, an event that marks the end of the British Empire. We cannot speculate that far out, although we have written about what a fallout could look like. It’s easy to see where the concern lies. The war does not bode well for us, regardless of our military might.
We are overextended. Our international prowess is weakening as the current administration fractures relationships with allies. Foreign investors consider the United States too volatile to add to their portfolio. Lack of domestic spending on infrastructure and social programs with the rapid acceleration of technology and outsourcing has led to significant job loss.
Put simply: We are running out of money in the same way that our sepsis patient is running out of time.
Increased distrust, uncontrolled misinformation campaigns, and the dissolution of governance controls led us to this moment. This infection is costing us our personal relationships, our mental health, our jobs, and our retirement.
The risks are there. While we do not have the power to singlehandly influence these decisions, there are small things we can do to rebuild our communities now.
What is the cure to sepsis? It can include antibiotics, IV fluids, amputations, ventilators, and dialysis machines. This is where the analogy gets tricky, because we don’t have a surgeon or a doctor to remedy the situation. But there are small behavioral changes we can make to feel better and work towards a more positive future.
There are two actionable steps I want to share with you. Both are practical: How to rebuild trust and how to feel more secure in your financial future.
First, it’s possible to rebuild a community. After the pandemic, many of our institutions felt fragmented. We must spend a little more time—even if it’s just 15 minutes—talking to each other. Develop relationships within your local town, city, and county. Support individuals that invest in local infrastructure and problem-solving rather than partisan talking points, whether they be politicians, coworkers, nonprofits, church groups, and other social clubs.
Invest in advisory relationships with fiduciaries. You don’t have to work with me (after all, how can you trust me from one blog post), but having a group of people you trust matters. You can vent to these people and ask for objective advice without drama. They shouldn’t try to sell you something, but instead walk with you through potential avenues.
Next, you’ll want to review your financial plan. I cannot give specific advice without knowing your situation, but you'll want to ask yourself some key questions:
You may already have asked yourself these questions. They are not always easy to answer. And while no financial plan is without risk, arming yourself with knowledge and preparation can help you maintain peace of mind.
If you would like to explore a second opinion, I am always open to talk. Please book a no-commitment call with me at your convenience.
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